Democratic Guardrails—Not Opaque Agreements—Must Shape the Future of Critical Minerals. NDI Explains How to Get There.
Transparency and oversight create secure supply chains and safe business practices.
From AI data centers to electric vehicle batteries, critical minerals like nickel and lithium are the backbone of modern technological innovation. Demand for these resources is expected to quadruple by 2040, outpacing the growth of other extractive industries by a wide margin. As competition heats up, economic powers including the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia are quickly growing their mining investments across Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
Many of the most mineral-rich countries in these regions, however, are classified by Freedom House as “partly free” or “not free.” They lack democratic guardrails such as strong legislatures, robust oversight mechanisms, vibrant civil societies, and independent, investigative media. With extractive powers highly motivated to secure mineral access, these conditions leave resource-rich countries vulnerable to scenarios where elites disregard rights and profit over everyday workers, host communities, and businesses.
Agreements governing critical mineral mining are often signed directly between states. Many agreements with authoritarian powers have resulted in corruption, near-monopolies, abusive working conditions, and a lack of transparency between mining companies, public officials, and local communities.
NED, its partners, and its core institutes are at the forefront of establishing necessary democratic guardrails. For example, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) engages with partners on the ground in many mineral-rich countries. In the Philippines, NDI works with civic groups to identify corruption risks in the rapidly growing nickel industry. In Ecuador, the Institute supports civil society and legislators to identify governance reforms increasing transparency and accountability in the mining sector. A forthcoming NDI global guide will help legislators advance these reforms.
In the following explainer, Sef Ashiagbor from NDI’s Democracy Innovation Lab outlines five key insights on the critical minerals industry and explains why democracy stands as the difference maker between entrenched elitism and widespread prosperity.
Five Things to Know: Critical Minerals and Why Democracy Matters
By Sef Ashiagbor, National Democratic Institute
This post was originally published by the National Democratic Institute on March 31, 2026.
The minerals powering your phone, your car, and your doctor’s imaging equipment are also reshaping global politics. Countries are racing to secure reliable supplies of critical minerals—and the rules of that race will determine whether the windfall benefits everyone or just a few. NDI works with governments, civil society, and communities in mineral-rich countries to build the transparency and accountability systems that make a difference. Here’s what you need to know.
1. What are critical minerals and why are they suddenly so important?
A mineral is considered ‘critical’ when it is essential to modern technology or national security—and when a reliable supply cannot be taken for granted. The technologies defining our future—clean energy, artificial intelligence, advanced healthcare, and defense systems—all run on these minerals. Given their importance to modern life, by 2040, demand for critical minerals like graphite, lithium and nickel could grow by 200 to 500 percent.
2. Why can’t countries just mine their own critical minerals?
Known reserves and processing of several critical minerals are highly concentrated in a handful of countries. For instance, the Democratic Republic of Congo holds the majority of global cobalt reserves, while Argentina and Chile hold some of the largest of lithium reserves. Batteries for cellphones, electric vehicles, drones and AI devices all depend on both minerals. Even when reserves exist, domestic laws and production costs can make it easier to import minerals from other countries. In other cases, mineral-rich countries need foreign investments and mining expertise to develop their mining industry.
3. Isn’t mining harmful?
It can be. Polluted water, contaminated farmland, unsafe working conditions and forced displacement—risks that are often far worse for women—sometimes lead host communities to reject mining operations. Mining also attracts particularly high levels of corruption, financial mismanagement, and even organized crime. Instead of funding public services and economic growth, revenues can be diverted to enrich powerful individuals. When competition for mining contracts is unfair and when mining operations and revenues aren’t properly managed, the risks are higher for everyone. For buyers, this means highly unpredictable supplies and prices. Mineral-rich countries with strong transparency and accountability systems have successfully managed the risks often associated with mining.
4. Why is China so central to this conversation?
Because it planned ahead. For decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has heavily invested in mining and processing and currently dominates the global supply of critical minerals. That influence comes with leverage: the PRC has suspended exports and manipulated prices to advance strategic interests. The result is growing anxiety—among governments, industries, and defense planners—about whether they can count on reliable supplies at fair prices.
5. How could democracy help?
Democracy could make the critical minerals boom a win-win for all, rather than a race to the bottom. For mineral-rich countries, transparency and accountability would mean better deals for their minerals. It would provide better opportunities and protections for their workers and mining communities, reducing mining disruptions. It would increase the chances that mineral revenues fuel economic opportunity for all—rather than enriching a select few. For countries seeking to buy critical minerals, it would mean more stable supplies and fair pricing. Without democratic governance, the alternative is a perfect storm: conflict, corruption, environmental destruction and supply chains no one can trust.
NDI’s work with governments, parliaments, and civil society organizations in mineral-rich countries helps improve mining laws and ensure they are applied fairly. These programs also support people’s efforts to pressure government agencies and private companies to reduce the risks for mining communities, address corruption and strengthen accountability in how mining revenues are collected and spent. The goal: ensuring that the race for critical minerals becomes a driver of shared prosperity. Because transparency, accountability and citizen engagement may prove just as critical as the minerals themselves.
Sef Ashiagbor is Deputy Director in the National Democratic Institute’s Democracy Innovation Lab. She has worked extensively in Sub-Saharan Africa, leading research programs and capacity building initiatives on a range of issues including management of extractive industries.
NDI’s checklist is fine. Still wondering why they dodge the hardest part: who verifies the verifiers when host governments own the labs.